Sunday, December 28, 2008

India 2025

I know, all the factors i listed down in my earlier post, were already existing forever for India. But the good new factor is, the whole world is going into a recession for a pretty long time. Only one thing that can revive the world back is domestic demand of India and China.
We will get super-cheap commodities for a long time. Super-cheap oil. Super-cheap metals. Super-cheap machines. Super-cheap anything we want from the rest of the world.

Japan, never exported to grow. It started exporting after the crash, because there was no domestic demand left. Crash of US will happen within a year. Millions of NRIs with billions of dollars are going to comeback to India. They are going to add to the domestic demand.

I don't claim that great American companies will not remain after the crash. Some American companies have made world class products. Those companies are the only hope for America.
But lot of companies which just exist because US is booming will downsize or go bankrupt. Subways, PizzaHuts and Starbucks will find it difficult to make bucks. Lot of crappy books written by great American businessman's will never be read again.

People will now be reading stories of India. Great Indian leaders will be born.
If you become a CEO of some Indian company and take it to great heights, you must remember that it is not just your efforts which are working here. You must admire everyone, you must remember the positive feedback loop.

Everybody was running this race. Race for economic growth. Everybody was running like a hare. We were the tortoise. At the end of it tortoise always wins.

India is decoupled. We don't need FII investments. If Crude prices are at 30$ compared to 70$ over last year. That is equivalent to savings of 40$ per barrel of crude. Our daily crude consumption is 2.4 million barrel per day. That make an annual savings for @(70$-30$) equal to 35 billion$. This is just crude. Rest of the savings will come to be much higher than the FII investments over the complete year.

We will continue to grow. Grow at the speed of tortoise and we are going to beat all those hares.
Our domestic savings and investments will lead to our growth.

Only way Gulf can manage to get crude prices up are not production cuts, but they should learn that instead of spending their money on their useless infrastructure projects and havoc sized malls in Dubai. They should start investing in India's infrastructure. They should probably gift a car to every poor Indian families. Crude is going down below 25$ according to my new prediction.

India 2025 will be much bigger than what people would have ever thought.

It will be much easier to do business in India. Every business in India will grow. India will have a big consumption boom. We will be exporting lifestyle and food to the rest of the world.

When somebody gets rich, people start to listen to them. We were listening to US. We suddenly out of nowhere started liking their junk food and their life style. When India goes rich, people will start to become obsessed about yoga, about our classical music, about our life style.

I don't know what we have to teach to the rest of the world. But when we grow rich, we will definitely find a lot of things.

Ofcourse, be intelligent and become the part of the boom. Don't be part of a busting economy.

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