Friday, December 5, 2008

Getting a MBA ?

With just 7 years of prosperity you have lived in from IT crash to subprime crisis, you are also a believer in the boom. You also believe that your salary is going to rise at 10-20% per annum for next 30 years.
Such assumptions at the times of boom has always landed human beings to worst financial crisis, especially when they leveraged and bought a house, under such assumptions. World is not so flat. You just cannot predict next 30 years of your life. You have seen too less. Life at the end of it, will teach you a lot, and most of it will be taught to you by supply and demand equation of the world.

Every boom has been followed by a bust, but nobody believes this one will bust ever.
Money has always changed hands, much faster than anybody imagined.

It never changes for people, just their price changes. We saw a technology boom, so price of technocrats was high. Every middle class parent was beating his child, to become an engineer.
This remained high, until the world produced so many technocrats, that they were not required anymore. Then people were required to manage those technocrats so the price of manager was high. Then people started to believe that managers will always remain in demand, they ran to get an MBA, for a high flying career. This belief produced so many manager, that they were not in demand anymore, their price goes low. Now, even a cashier at a bank is an MBA, people who pain you with those telemarketing calls are also MBAs, people sitting at Airtel counters are also MBAs. MBA became a worthless degree after all.
Then people believed Investment bankers will remain in demand. They ran to get CFAs, MS in Financial engineering until they realized they are not required anymore. People realized that artists are getting payed high. They ran to Arts school to learn Dance and Music, at that time every middle class parent was beating their child for reading about maths and physics, and were forcing them to become Artists. Big corporations were made, which hired artists, made them sit in a cubicle and draw paintings all day. Until that boom again busts. Then people realized that Farmers are getting paid high, they were beating their child for studying, and not doing physical exercise, so that he can become a good farmer.

Whenever you choose a career, which has existed for less than five years, then think again whether it is a boom or is it a sustainable long term career. Look at at least 10-15 years of performance across market cycles, then only you can choose a company/sector both for career or buying its stock.

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