Saturday, April 25, 2009

Our great growth period

Starting from 2002 to 2008, the whole world showed high economic growth which was not seen ever by humanity. The governments all around the world, printed a lot of money, which lead to economic growth. Productivity increased around all economic sectors, steel and cement production increased by 3-5 folds, new infrastructure in terms of rail, roads, bridges were made. The number of cars on the roads doubled. Wages also doubled in few years time.

This money was entered through the banking system by credit expansion. Banks were lending like anything, this led to cities getting overpopulated and towns underpopulated. Lot of money printing led to rising commodity prices, real estate prices and stock prices. This was a time when speculators earned more than real hard working people. Every fifth person was speculating and every third person was a property broker in these times.

Everybody was happy to earn money, and also too see their house price inflate. Companies added extra production capacities. Most other companies speculated by buying smaller companies to increased production. This also lead to and M&A boom.

This time became a me-me-me generation for status-seekers. It was a time of new-breed of millionaire. Everybody looked intelligent in those times. Everybody had too much to make and too much to spend. Mobile phones, Internet made people believe that we are entering a new modern era which will be much better than those sci-fi movies had shown.

This was a time, when too much money was chasing too few assets. Real estate boom went on all over the world. Mortgage industry flourished. Higher home equity, and more money in the system, made people happier to worry less about the future and spend more.

Globalization got its true sense, just 20 years back when people were living and closed communities will all their relatives in the same city/village. This time people thought about World tours, living in 10 cities for a life time. One leg on Dubai, other in Singapore and third in London. Unachievable prosperity was achieved. Humanity felt proud of it. Capitalism was appreciated like never before.

It was all about Growth. Everybody business dreamed to grow 10 times. It was a time when Money was everything. Amount of optimism in everybody was unimagined. It was, as if we are going to grow forever, without ever coming back.

It was also a time of exceptional me-me-me success stories. Absolute assholes of the world, speculated to earn millions. This was a time of success stories, everyone grew their businesses n-folds. Everybody was proud of their achievements.

But in real,

Real estate and house rents were appreciating faster than the real wages. Food prices were going off the roof, because they cannot be mass produced like mobile phones, cars or textiles. Even in textiles, cotton clothes were getting expensive because cotton cannot be mass produced, but polyester can be. Especially, the poor was not even able to afford everyday food and a 25 sqft. space to sleep, but mobile phones and nice clothes, didn't made him feel like poor anymore. Poor was also proud and happy.

The situation of educated youth was even more pathetic. In 1990, we were facing problems of employing our men, now leave men, women employment rate was also high. It was impossible for the youth to afford metro cities life, without a working spouse. The real wages though rising in currency terms were actually shrinking, now two people have to work to run a household, instead of one. And i am not talking about extra luxuries, just a normal household, with a secure neighborhood, hygiene, education for the kids, and healthcare for the rest of family. Leave cars and air conditioners. Every housewife, was trying that extra arrangement for little extra money.

Businesses and people with real hard work and no speculation didn't made much. It was always about the extra arrangement ( jugad) which made businesses running.

Everybody will realize by 2011 or 2012, that our real wages are shrinking. But if you realize, it so late, you will loose a lot.

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