Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Inflation going Hyper !!

This post explains you why inflation will go Hyper.

Assume that current monetary easing leads to mild inflation in India and China. India and China, already have a high base effect of last year. A 5-10% inflation again will lead to havoc in the economy. Initially, governments will try to control inflation by monetary tightening, but their is so much amount of money already in the system that monetary tightening is not going to work (as it was not working in May, June, July when inflation finally peaked at 13%)

Bond markets are already showing signs of a bubble bust, so governments which have screwed up their finances will find it problematic to raise money, and hence will resort to printing money.
Eventually, India and China will have to intervene in the currency markets, to prop up their currencies. This will lead to inflation in US, as dollar will lose value, when these two countries intervene directly by selling dollars out of their forex reserves. US will not like it, and will probably piss-off India and China, by ordering them not to intervene in the currency markets directly.

If, India and China, are successful in the currency markets, the inflation will be exported to US. That means, inflation has gone global. Now, all global commodities will start rising. This again leads to higher inflation in India and China.

If, India and China, are unsucessful in the currency markets, they will hyperinflate. That means, half of the world population is facing high inflation. This will make things even more worse, because it will definitely lead to a massive social unrest and a war.

I know, you did not got it all, but atleast keep 1 year of food stored at your home. Live life the old way, when people used to buy 500 kg of wheat/rice at the time of harvesting season and consume it for whole year. Also, now people have guest room, childrens room, living room, dining room but they have forgotten the significance of store room. Have a store room at your home.

Understand that we are not that modern, appreciate the old ways, for they have seen more than you to make something a part of the culture. To understand what exactly is going to happen, just imagine a 1-year curfew is taking place, and how should you be prepared. Things will get worse from as early as 2010. You still have good 9 months to think, watch, but once you are sure, take action. Watch commodity prices at your grocery store or a commodity market website, and make your own inflation index. Buy equities and gold, they will be safe and liquid heavens to preserve your wealth against rampant inflation. Buying realestate will also be good, but ill-liquidity will be a problem.

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