Set of good news to come in future. I have kept random dates and random number, but series of events will be like this.
29 Nov, 2008 : RBI cuts CRR by 100 bps, repo unchanged.
15 Dec, 2008 : Govt. takes back its petrol price hike, on cheaper crude.
29 Dec, 2008 : RBI cuts CRR by 100bps
29 Jan, 2009 : RBI cuts CRR by 100 bps, repo by 50 bps.
30 Jan, 2009 : Crude hits 4 year low of 50$ per barrel
28 Feb, 2009 : RBI cuts repo by 100 bps, reverse repo by 100bps and CRR by 100bps.
14 Mar, 2009 : Airlines slash rates by 40% on cheaper ATF cost.
3 Apr, 2009 : Rupee breaches 40 mark again.
12 Apr, 2009 : Oil marketing companies report their best quarterly performance ever.
15 May, 2009 : Inflation for week ending 15th May, - 1.6%.
15 July 2009 : Inflation for week ending 15th July, -5.8%
20 July, 2009 : Congress led coalition re-elected.
29 July, 2009 : RBI cuts repo by 100bps.
1 Aug, 2009 : Govt. allows Oil marketing companies to set oil prices, no oil bonds subsidies now.
3 Aug, 2009 : Petrol cost will be set every fortnight at petrol pumps. This weeks price Rs. 40.23.
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The chronology looks like a bear on commodity!!
ReplyDelete...well pungi what about REAL ESTATE in particular.
chal...teri first good news to tru ho gayi hai.....waisi you would have meant 100 bps and not 1 bps...right??
ReplyDeleteyepp edited it to 100 bps.
ReplyDeleteFirst news is here :
10 Oct 2008 : RBI cuts CRR by 150bps.
i'm highly sceptical abt the oil price thingy ... waiting for 15th dec :)
ReplyDeletesecond one is also here .. unfortunately markets not reacting to any of the news .. but it will
ReplyDelete15 Oct 2008 : RBI cuts CRR by 100 bps to 6.5%
market reaction abhi negative hi rahega thode time....results kafi kharab aa rahein hain is quarter ke.....probably things might stabalize by november....november nifty calls per kuch view hai tera...
ReplyDeletedude .. i have 9 october calls .. from 3100 to 4000.. i am expecting a bounce back in October itself.
ReplyDeleteBut Now i am skeptical, shayad november call lene padenge par paisa nahi bachega agar oct. call goes to zero.
Sid,
ReplyDeleteSomethings here ..
If crude goes down to 30$, then our crude outflows will be much lesser and will be balanced by FII outflows.
Re will start to appreciate, if crude goes below 40, because our current account will also start moving to surplus rather than a deficit.
By -ive inflation, i do not mean deflation, but because of a higher base effect YoY inflation will come close to 0 or even negative.
Yeah Lungi is not cutting the price now, but in one way that is a good thing. We are getting a huge current account surplus. Which makes rupee appreciate, which makes crude even cheaper. Let them cut after the election, buy BPCL stock till then.
okay here is my currecy theory.
ReplyDeleteCurrency = Export Inflows - Import Outflows + Investment Inflows
Rs. went from 38 to 50, because our export inflows went down because of the jittery global economy, out investment inflows, turned negative to become FII outflows. But out import outflows were still pretty much the same.
However, if our Crude Import outflows go down to such a level that it balances FII outflows and lower export inflows. Rupee will start to appreciate.
I am predicting a Rupee appreciation around 40$ on crude.