India, golden bird ready to fly.

When US falls into recession, it will take Europe, Japan along with it. Effectively, whole developed world will fall into recession. Demand for money is going to go down. Demand for commodities is going to go down.

The demise of the biggest consumer of the world, opens a position of a consumer, which can consume more than it produces, to fill the gap in global growth. This consumer, should be politically stable, have immense potential to consume, its economy should be insulated from global recession.

Russia, being a primary commodity exporter, if commodity prices go down. It will also start feeling problems.
China, a country dependent on US exports. If those exports take a hit, China cannot sustain its current growth rates. But China is still a very good contender, but it has to change its focus from serving its greatest consumer, to serve its own people. These will need a shift in industries, such changes will take 3-5 years.
South Africa, a good choice, less dependent on both US and commodities.
Rest of Africa, no political stability, dependent on commodity exports.
South America, Brazil and Argentina, dependent totally on commodities.
Taiwan, South Korea dependent on US, but technology demand is going to remain robust.
Japan, already a fucked up shit.
Pakistan, politically unstable.

India, with its ever growing population is the best country suited to fill this gap, it has immense consumption capability. It is less dependent on exports and more dependent on its own internal economy. India, a country dependent on commodities, most hurt because of high commodity prices and a high interest rates. If crude reaches 50$ and remains there for an year and India does not cuts on retail petroleum price, in such a scenario, Indian government will have so much money that it can fund all current infrastructure projects (for which it called for Foreign investment and Public Private Partnerships) on its own including road, railways and ports. It can lay a robust irrigation pipeline, which could possibly pass through every village of the country. Since, half of the world is also in recession, money supply will be so much that interest rates will come all the way down to 6% or even lower.
Lot of countries, moving their extra reserves to India will also mean Rupee appreciation which will make things even better. China will revive in this time, but due to political reasons we are much better contender than China, just because we are a democracy.

We consume, people park there excess money in India, so Rupee appreciates, and we get to consume more at a cheaper price. These factors are similar to factors which lead to US growth from 1980 till now. India will have a massive consumption boom.

It will be great to see, when your watchman will be buying clothes from a mall. Bullock and hand-pulled Carts will disappear from roads. A person with earning Rs.5000 will be able to afford much more than his bare necessities. You will see a mall, every 100 meters. Prosperity of farmers. Nariman Point will become Manhattan of India.

What does this mean for the stock markets ? I will say the mother of all bull runs will come.
A stock market does not need foreign inflows or FII money to rise. When they stop selling, we will see a rise. Stock market needs a buoyant economy which shows growth. How much are we going to grow ? I say 15% per annum in US dollar terms and at least 10% in Rupee terms.

It will also be an end to outsourcing boom, Indian IT will also suffer but India will have huge IT demand of its own after some years.

Somebody, told me that India has far too many problems to grow. My argument is when money comes, all the problems will automatically be tackled. When our politicians are going to dress up in expensive Gucci suits and drink Martini, words of wisdom will come out from their mouth.
Intelligence comes with money. Money comes with growth.

Indian economy is on a launchpad to growth, one it is launched, the growth trajectory is already set up by the rest of the world. Our stock markets will never see such a big correction for next 10 years. Earlier, growth was in selected cities, mostly because of the outsourcing boom. Now, it will be the time for every city to grow into a metro and every town to grow into a city.

Our population will become our biggest asset, we will fill the gap in global consumption after the demise of the biggest consumer. We have been taught to save every drop of petrol, save every drop of water. Now nobody will teach us savings, it will be the time for consuming, consuming more than we need.

But remember that this boom will also bust, for probably rise of Africa.